Category Archives: Iran

The Professor and White House Information Flow

The Professor thought teaching political science at the honors level in the first 100 days of the Trump Administration is more demanding than I remember at any period in the past. Foreign policy, military operations, domestic legislative crisis with healthcare and tax reform. Now we have critics clamoring for more information regarding the President’s plans and intentions in Syria, North Korea and Afghanistan. In addition, the political talking heads are ranting about control of information in the White House. They are all showing they know not what they are mumbling about. But I must write a short note to my students. It will be three days before the next class.

Not to worry class this is only a few thoughts on the by-play of people who should know better. Recently former officials and socialist critics of the current Administration have been raving about the need to have one person in charge of information in the White House. Unless they mean the President and, they don’t, this is an exceedingly dumb and dangerous idea. President Trump maintains personal contact with the outside world, both foreign and domestic, better than any other president in my life time. The office of the President can be and very often is a very isolated position. While it may be difficult to get to the President, it is hard for him to develop and maintain multiple points of access.

If one person controls information flow in the White House, he or she can control the President and have an undue influence on presidential actions. The gate-keeper of the Oval Office can be a very powerful position. So, when you find yourself as a player in presidential politics in a few years, resist the efforts of the former players to control the flow of information in the White House. If the people have elected the right person, that person will be in charge.

My second concern is also directly related to information flow. The President’s opponents in both parties believe they are entitled to a complete plan on everything he has done or is planning to do. ‘Why doesn’t he give us his complete plans for dealing with North Korea, Syria, Russia and others? We in Congress or in the party of opposition deserve to know. It is our right!

No! It isn’t. You do not have the right. Only those with a legal need-to-know the information on a case-by-case basis have that right. While Obama ranted on about his military and foreign policy objectives, he never seemed to realize, or more likely to care, that you cannot tell most of the nation without telling the enemy in the process. For example, a far left socialist Senator demanded to know what foreign policy objective the President was trying to achieve with the cruise missile attack on a Syrian military airfield. How about the message, ‘if you use chemical weapons, again bad things will happen to you?’ Or to ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan. ‘You are no longer safe in caves or tunnels.’ Talking heads, journalist, media anchors on the left and right, senators and congressmen, repress your constant whining about being briefed in greater detail. It won’t make you any smarter or help you serve the people. The only measurable result will be giving our enemies a better chance of getting our secrets.

What’s is wrong with short policy statements like destroying ISIS, stopping North Korea and Iran from developing nuclear weapons they can deliver to America, pushing NATO members to pay their obligated military investments, reduce funding to the UN, protect our borders, renew our traditional relationships with Sunni Arabs, standby Israel,  pressure Russia to stop its aggressive acquisition of territory from other sovereign nations, and get better foreign trade deals?

What was the George Kennan policy during the Cold War? A single word, Containment. How, is what was done in secret with a strict need-to-know.

 

 

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The Professor’s op-ed on the Middle East and the U.S.

In between honors classes one day, the Professor thought, “I just can’t stand it any longer. No one is telling the people the truth about the Middle East. Does the Obama Administration and the Clinton campaign think we are too dumb? Trump’s instincts are good, but he needs to bone up on the area. The Russians are not in the Middle East to fight ISIS and Putin is not about to make any deals that do not further his plan to hold a naval base on the Mediterranean and to be a major on the ground player in the oil patch. I just have to write an op-ed piece.”

He pulled his keyboard toward him, looked out over the bay, and began to write.

First, there are a couple of truths about our strategic past in the Middle East. Forget the lines and names drawn on maps of the Middle East. Think of the area divided between the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims with the nation of Israel maintaining a stronghold in the midst of the struggle for dominance by the Shia and Sunnis. The Iranians are the leaders of the Shias and the Saudis, Arabs of the Gulf States and Egypt leading the Sunni opposition.

ISIS, al-Qaeda and their splinter groups are Sunni. The Obama-Clinton group has thrown American support to the Iranians, who want to use their new power to dominate the Middle East. President Obama always intended to follow the Shia/Iranian lead. That is why the abrupt pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq as soon as Obama came to power. The Iranians wanted the U.S. forces out of Iraq so that the Iraqi Shia could assume full control over the Iraqi military and economy and oust Sunnis from the military and government. (Remember, the Iraqi led Sunni government under Saddam Hussein fought a very bloody war against the Iranians.)

The Iraqi Shia government is now firmly allied with Iran. This is a government in name only. Iranians control all major moves in their drive to control a Shia empire of what is now Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. ISIS with all the terrible atrocities they have committed represented Sunni opposition to Iranian strategic goals. When they are destroyed, the strongest power on the ground will be Iran. When Mosel falls, it will be with the heavy involvement of Iranian weapons and ground forces. The Turks will stay within their territory and the only other viable fighting force, the Kurds, will be isolated with dreams of their own homeland shattered. With all of the talk from Washington about arming the Kurds, we never did. The Iranians and the Turks do not want the Kurds to be armed with modern weapons. All the arms we said were being sent to the Kurds went through the Baghdad Shia government that never sent them onward. The Obama Administration, of course, knew the Kurds would never receive the weapons. There is literally nothing the Iranians want that the Obama/Clinton group will not do their best to supply. Just look at the recent deal Obama made with Iran on their nuclear weapons program. While not called a treaty, that was what this deal is. Why take that route? Simply a way to avoid the need for Congressional ratification. We, the people, and Congress still have not seen all the pieces of this executive action.

On the Russian side, Putin is a modern day czar of Russia. His goal is to re-establish as much of the old Soviet Empire as possible. The weakness of the Obama presidency has given him a grand opening. For many centuries, Russian czars dreamed and planned to acquire a warm-water port for their navy. Without firing a shot or endangering Russian soldiers, he has acquired Tartus in Syria as a Russian warm-water port. That is now a fact. The fleet is there and weapons to defend it are in place. Putin will do what he must to support Assad. He is not in Syria to fight ISIS. Aleppo is the only evidence anyone should need. ISIS was not there but Syrian anti-Assad forces were. The city is now rubble as a result of Russian historic lack of concern for collateral deaths when their critical national interests are involved. Since Iran is the local protector and supporter of Assad and Syria, Putin will make any deal necessary with Iran to protect his naval base at Tartus and his new role in Middle Eastern oil. Obama’s plan for Iranian hegemony in the Middle East is on solid ground with both U.S. and Russia supporting Iran and the Shia Muslims.

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INSIGHTS 274: National Security managers versus Donald Trump

 This week, 50 national security bureaucrats signed a document stating Donald Trump wasn’t fit to be Commander-in-Chief. Devastating? Not really!

National security specialists look at the world through a very murky lens. They are often wrong about their own specialty. In fact, some noteworthy national security advisors have missed what have been called the most important security issues of our times.

This whole class of self-designated security elitists have presided over the decline of American power and prestige. They lacked the courage and honor to stand up and be counted during the terrible Obama wartime decisions. They knew the military power of the United States was being systematically diminished. They knew about the fiasco over Benghazi and the failure of the leadership to even try to rescue the valiant men who died there. They knew the Obama infatuation with Iran was leading to a terrible deal that would reward the No. 1 terrorist sponsor in the world. They knew we should not have withdrawn all our forces from Iraq. They knew the Obama polices were failing to deal with Syria and the growth of ISIS. They knew Putin intends to reconstitute the Russian empire and that the Chinese were expanding their dominance in the China Sea. And they all stood quietly by, obeying orders from an administration they knew had a view of the world very far from reality.

Where were their petitions and outcries then? Why didn’t they resign in protest? To resign and protest in the face of a vindictive leader takes honor and courage. It seems these critical characteristics were missing. These men are not leaders. They are merely failed managers who valued their careers over the needs of the nation.


Donald Trump scares these timid managers. None of them would last in a Trump administration.

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INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 271 Letter From A Citizen To A President

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

Dear Mr. President:

I am a Korean War Veteran with 27 years of Cold War service, including two years in Vietnam and two years as a special assistant to President Reagan in the fields of intelligence, covert action and counter-terrorism. When you were elected, I had serious reservations about your ability to lead our nation, but I was pleased that America had elected a black president.

After your first month in office, I could see my fears about your capability to lead and protect America were not unfounded. I am now 85 and am determined to live long enough to see the damage you have done being repaired. That is a big job for I cannot point to anything you have done well as our President. The country is more divided now than at any time since the war in Vietnam. Russia and China are expanding. Our economy is a shadow of its past power. Our military forces are below the readiness levels prior to the WWII. Foreign leaders have no respect for you or America’s current world role. Former allies are mystified by both your actions and failures to act.

Our veterans and our workers are suffering under your leadership. Unemployment seems to be something you try to fix with bogus figures, much like our GNP annual rate. The middle class is vanishing and your constant speeches seldom fail to encourage class warfare. At least they did before I stopped listening to anything you say. The illegal and unchecked immigration you favor, while creating support for your progressive political base, puts additional obstacles in the path of American workers seeking employment.

As a direct result of your inaction and ‘leading from behind’ (which is not leading at all), the Middle East is in turmoil, millions of people have been displaced or killed. You have wasted the blood of our warriors and the nation’s treasury on your appeasement theories of foreign policy and warfare that have never worked and never will. Your anti-colonial infatuation with ‘One World Rule,’ the evils of American power, anti-capitalism, and support of Iran and Shiite Islam have no place in our past or future.

You are a true Socialist revolutionary who hasn’t realized yet that he has failed to transform America and that his time is now past. Please go quietly into history’s dust bin of failed leaders who never learned the difference between preaching about issues and actually working to fix national problems.

–BK

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Capitalism, class warfare, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Middle East, Obama, Progressives, Shiite

INSIGHTS 242 THE REAL LEGACY

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

Lets begin with the bottom line. President Obama has brought out the worst in America. The populace is more divided now than at any time after the Civil War. The economy is struggling. Employment participation rate is as low as it was in the late seventies. Wages are stagnant. More people are on food stamps than ever before. More people pay no federal taxes than do. Racism and class warfare is a common theme in White House messaging. The vaunted American military power has been diminished. Our traditional allies do not trust us and our enemies do not fear us. The President seems incapable of solving any national problems. When the economy is suffering with more people making do with less and the entire world in crises, President Obama constantly tells the American people ‘climate change’ is our biggest threat and that gun control is his number one priority along with closing Guantanamo Bay’s prison for foreign terrorist prisoners. He refuses to work with Congress and has made a mockery of the separation of powers doctrine and the rule of law. America’s best in the world medical system is mired in the debt and chaos of his medical plan, the infamous Obamacare. His deal with Iran must be the worst agreement any president ever made with an enemy state. In bygone times a good case would be made for his impeachment.

That is his legacy. But that is not what he has been about. His self assessment is based on other actions and on those he has made real progress. He wants to be known as the president who has advanced the cause of Socialism and income distribution farther than any other American President. Obamacare never was about healthcare. It is and was about government control of 8% of the economy. Our President has also been very effective in diminishing the very fine military machine he inherited with the purpose of making it unlikely America could ever again act as the world power. Every economic action his Administration has taken has weakened the economy with unneeded regulations. The energy industry has hung on in spite of his war on traditional energy sources. Without the Obama anchor we would be exporting billions of dollars of energy in the form of crude and refined oil products as well as natural gas in liquid form. An important result of increased American energy production is that it would free Europe of dependency on Russian oil and gas and far reduced Putin’s ability to expand the Russian empire by taking away his primary source of funds.

The President’s foreign policy has endangered Israel, consolidated Iran’s control of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The old power structure that allied Sunni nations with America is rapidly disappearing. Russia’s historical effort to secure a warm water port for its fleet has been accomplished. Even worse Russia now has a military presence astride the oil production fields and transportation network. The Middle East is now on the verge of a wide-spread war of Sunni Muslims against Shiite Muslims. The most likely result will be the emergence of Iran, with backing from Russia and China to be the dominate power in the area.

Through all this turmoil the World has been hoping for American leadership to protect the peace and independence of sovereign nations. President’s Obama’s leading from behind has failed them and us but has advanced the President’s ideological goals. Socialist and Communist historians will treat his Presidency with praise and reverence. Others won’t.

 

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon adventure mystery novels. The above is the result of my analysis of the President’s actions and policies from a conservative view point.

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INSIGHTS 239 — IMMIGRATION, A KEY PART OF TRANSFORMATION

The President could hardly wait to see what the Advisor thought of his plan to bring thousands of Syrian refugees into the United States. He toyed with his coffee cup, lit a cigarette, and said, “Well old man, what do you have to say about my immigration plan?”

“Nothing you do not already know. Let’s see if I have it right. First, it is a great issue. You can use your impressive political messaging skills to bash the Republicans and the renegade Democrats who worry about national security issues. What is really impressive is that you, single-handedly, caused the migration of people out of the Syria and Iraq and no one is even blaming you for creating this nightmare. You can now use the refugees to spread your ideology of transforming the Western world and the Middle East. The financial burdens on the already shaky economies of Europe will be enormous.

“They will be forced by their own morality to take in and care for people who will not assimilate into the cultures of France, Germany, and Scandinavia. Instead, the Muslim refugees will establish their own enclaves with their traditional way of life and Sharia law. The redistribution of European personal wealth will be one of the results. High taxes will be required, as will a growth in the size and scope of government, to cope with the problems of immigration and failed integration of the diverse cultures. The natural course of these factors will lead to a single-party system run by an elite group who will make decisions once left to the people and local government.

“America is better equipped to deal with refugees and the numbers they take in will not stress the economy to the same extent. But the federal government will grow to cope with the problems of immigration of groups of people who do not want to be assimilated into American culture. Nevertheless, the immigrants will increase the polarization of America.

“Your messaging will ensure the immigrants support your progressive party. The progressives will drive hard to give these people a quick path to citizenship. With the black, Hispanic, and Muslim votes, the progressive party will thrive and establish deep roots. You have never failed to use issues to destroy the opposition and this one is handmade for you. Your only danger is you cannot stay in office long enough to make all this happen. Without your destroy-America philosophy and political skills, the transformation process will not be able to continue. The test will be if you can uphold your veto of any legislation stopping or limiting the immigration of Syrian refugees and, at the same time, convincing Americans that your administration can and will vet each and every refugee, male and female.”

“You know, this is a weird scene. Here, I, the President, of what was the most powerful nation in the world, is sitting in a furnished underground cave discussing my plans with someone whose name I don’t know and yet, you know more about me than any of my closest staff. Your description is right on. I don’t think anyone else really understands. Of course I caused the breakdown of the Middle East, the rise of Iran, the disintegration of Iraq, the chaos in Libya and the constant push of the Muslims against the false state of Israel. Not to mention the replacement of American imperial influence in the area by the Russians. Thousands of angry devout Muslims were the real power of change.

“I wish I had more time to destroy the entire Sunni power structure. And I am very thankful you are powerless to warn anyone. Not that anyone would believe your story. Even I doubt you really exist, locked down here in the caverns beneath the White House. I may come down again, but don’t count on it. Don’t get up. Save what energy you have left. My last joy will be doing a victory lap down here in your cave.”

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

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