Category Archives: oil

The Professor: Russia and Elections

A fictional discourse between a learned political science professor and his students.

I stress in my seminars that the modern political scientist or journalist must know how to think outside the box, have a solid understanding of history and, above all, a strong dose of logic and common sense. It seems there are very few who can check these three boxes. Look at the fervor over the alleged collusion of the Trump campaign with the Russians. According to the Progressive/Socialists, often referred to as Democrats, President Trump only won the national election because of Russian meddling in the election.

What the Progressive followers of Obama and Clinton don’t want to acknowledge and the Congressional Republicans are too timid and self-serving to say, is that the Russians have always meddled in elections, especially in the era of the Comintern organization of the Lenin/Stalin period. But the Russians have never tried to influence an election in favor of a capitalistic nationalist party. They have spent billions on hundreds of foreign political campaigns and elections to further the spread of communism and socialism.

Why would they try to help Trump when the Obama administration systematically weakened America’s military and economic power? Obama pulled missile defense systems out of eastern Europe, curtailed the American development of an ICBM defense, allowed Russia to put a strong military presence in the Middle East, including a naval base in the Mediterranean, refused Ukrainian requests for weapons to combat the Russian takeover of the Crimea and large parts of Ukraine and crippled the development and export of American oil and natural gas.

Candidate Trump made no secret of the fact, that he would rebuild America’s military and economic power. Hillary Clinton pledged to continue President Obama’s policies. The Russians are not dumb when it comes to advancing their national interests. Yes, the Russians can be counted on to meddle in elections in favor of their national interests. Candidate Trump’s campaign promises were and are not in Russia’s national interests. The only campaign and administration that have colluded with the Russians is that of the progressive regime of Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Today’s democratic/progressive messages are tied to the Alinsky strategy of using any and all issues to attack and destroy the opposition. Progressives may take any side of any issue as long as it furthers the progressive cause. Most of the national media is fully supporting progressive policies. Don’t look for truth or logic  in progressive messaging. They are not important. Sizing power is.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Alinsky, Barry Kelly, Capitalism, Clinton, Conservative views, Intelligence & Politics, Obama, oil, Progressives, Republicans, Russia, trump

INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

1 Comment

Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Kurds, Middle East, Obama, oil, Shiite, Sunni

INSIGHTS 242 THE REAL LEGACY

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

Lets begin with the bottom line. President Obama has brought out the worst in America. The populace is more divided now than at any time after the Civil War. The economy is struggling. Employment participation rate is as low as it was in the late seventies. Wages are stagnant. More people are on food stamps than ever before. More people pay no federal taxes than do. Racism and class warfare is a common theme in White House messaging. The vaunted American military power has been diminished. Our traditional allies do not trust us and our enemies do not fear us. The President seems incapable of solving any national problems. When the economy is suffering with more people making do with less and the entire world in crises, President Obama constantly tells the American people ‘climate change’ is our biggest threat and that gun control is his number one priority along with closing Guantanamo Bay’s prison for foreign terrorist prisoners. He refuses to work with Congress and has made a mockery of the separation of powers doctrine and the rule of law. America’s best in the world medical system is mired in the debt and chaos of his medical plan, the infamous Obamacare. His deal with Iran must be the worst agreement any president ever made with an enemy state. In bygone times a good case would be made for his impeachment.

That is his legacy. But that is not what he has been about. His self assessment is based on other actions and on those he has made real progress. He wants to be known as the president who has advanced the cause of Socialism and income distribution farther than any other American President. Obamacare never was about healthcare. It is and was about government control of 8% of the economy. Our President has also been very effective in diminishing the very fine military machine he inherited with the purpose of making it unlikely America could ever again act as the world power. Every economic action his Administration has taken has weakened the economy with unneeded regulations. The energy industry has hung on in spite of his war on traditional energy sources. Without the Obama anchor we would be exporting billions of dollars of energy in the form of crude and refined oil products as well as natural gas in liquid form. An important result of increased American energy production is that it would free Europe of dependency on Russian oil and gas and far reduced Putin’s ability to expand the Russian empire by taking away his primary source of funds.

The President’s foreign policy has endangered Israel, consolidated Iran’s control of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The old power structure that allied Sunni nations with America is rapidly disappearing. Russia’s historical effort to secure a warm water port for its fleet has been accomplished. Even worse Russia now has a military presence astride the oil production fields and transportation network. The Middle East is now on the verge of a wide-spread war of Sunni Muslims against Shiite Muslims. The most likely result will be the emergence of Iran, with backing from Russia and China to be the dominate power in the area.

Through all this turmoil the World has been hoping for American leadership to protect the peace and independence of sovereign nations. President’s Obama’s leading from behind has failed them and us but has advanced the President’s ideological goals. Socialist and Communist historians will treat his Presidency with praise and reverence. Others won’t.

 

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon adventure mystery novels. The above is the result of my analysis of the President’s actions and policies from a conservative view point.

3 Comments

Filed under Barry Kelly, class warfare, Conservative views, foreign policy, global warming, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Obama, Obamacare, oil, Putin, Russia, Saudia Arabia, Shiite, Sunni

INSIGHTS 241 — THE ADVISOR CRITICIZES THE PRESIDENT’S SPEECH

Advisor's vault doorBy his first comment, the Advisor could tell he had hit a presidential nerve. In an angry voice, the President said, “What do you mean I live in a different universe?”

“Simply judging by your last speech on the terrorism incident in San Bernardino, California. You focused on gun control, said don’t blame Islam, touted the success of your existing strategy against ISIS or ISIL and the effectiveness of your multination coalition, and the arming of Sunni and Kurdish forces with more Special Forces support and a continuation of the bombing of ISIS targets and the need for patience. Are you not aware that no one believes any of this?” The Advisor waved one of his arms across the table.

The President sat back in his chair. “You are so wrong. All my advisors, those who don’t live in a cave, tell me my speech was near perfect. I know my transformation program is going well. I’m close to closing Guantanamo Bay and issuing an executive order to strengthen existing gun regulations.”

The Advisor paused. “I don’t believe any of that has anything real to do with the threat from Islamic jihadists. Your statement that the Islamic religion has nothing to do with terrorist attacks is neither accurate nor believable by anyone living in the modern world. Of course, not all Muslims are terrorists, but nearly all of today’s terrorist attacks are carried out by Muslims in the name of Islam. Moderate Muslims are not speaking out against jihadists and are not helping to prevent the radicals from taking control of the Islamic world. What do you think the Caliphate ISIS is establishing is all about? Closing Guantanamo Bay and more gun control regulation actions make people wonder what you are thinking about and why aren’t you focusing on the real problem of terrorism being exported from Islamic safe havens?”

“Well, is this the real Advisor exposing his true beliefs? You just don’t understand. Your ancestors never suffered under British colonialism. My grandfather and father both lived under the British boot. They were persecuted for their beliefs.”

“I cannot give you the advice I think you can use without injecting my own set of values and historical information base. No, my ancestors did not suffer under British colonialism. My ancestors were slaves brought from Africa in American and European ships loaded with Africans captured and sold to them by Arab Muslims and some Muslim-Africans with Arab names.

“American blacks fought for and won legal and actual freedom. Freedom wasn’t given to us. We fought for it. That is something you don’t understand about black history in America. You and your Kenyan family never were part of the King crusade. I don’t know about your white mother.

“We blacks have and have had our problems with equality and opportunity in America but we are proud to be Americans. We built a large part of this nation and are just in the last generation coming into enjoying our share in the American dream. Islamic terrorism is not just a threat to wealthy white America, it is a threat to all Americans of all classes. Under rule by the Progressive Party, do you think a boy from your background could become president of the United States? Isn’t that a real example of social mobility between economic classes in America?”

Instead of answering, the President stormed out and slammed the old vault door.

The Advisor thought, he might not come back and at this point, I really don’t care. I’ve no more advice I can offer. It is probably time to make my last entries and close my journal. 

 

 

 

1 Comment

Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, ISIS, Kurds, Middle East, Obama, oil, political solutions, Progressives, Shiite, Sunni, Terrorism

INSIGHTS 236 — PRESIDENTIAL WEAKNESS OR IDEOLOGICAL CONVICTION?

Advisor's vault doorThe Advisor put down the receiver after Chris, his Secret Service contact, told him the President wouldn’t be down today or for the rest of the week.

He had mixed feelings. The President was the only person he saw face to face. Over the years in his underground office, the Advisor had become dependent on the President’s visits. The isolation and loneliness were really affecting him. He really doubted he could function through the year remaining in the President’s term. He found himself losing track of some of his thoughts when he was writing in his journal. No question, he was really slowing down. Each day was a bit harder. His exercise schedule was a thing of the past. Without an appetite, he seldom did any meal preparation. He wasn’t sure whether it was his mental state or if age was catching up. To force himself to function, he decided to prepare a journal entry of the problems he had with the President’s actions and policies.

The Advisor thought, Even if the President is my only face-to-face contact, when he leaves I feel like I have been in the presence of a very dangerous man and I can’t do anything about it. In fact, my mission is to support him even though I know he is intent on destroying the America I fought for and loved. He is true to his ideology and background. Our President is a dedicated socialist and like so many guilt-ridden liberals, blames America for the world’s current and past problems. He is determined to be known in history as the president who weakened capitalism, imperialism, and the emphasis upon freedom of the individual. By weakening American economical and military power, he will force America to take a very diminished role in world affairs. The nation will be dependent on international organizations to define and protect the rights and privileges of all people. America will no longer be a unique nation and the hope of people everywhere.

There is no other way to understand his actions or his announced policies. He knows the withdrawal of America from the world will result in totalitarian forces like Russia, China, Iran, and the Muslim Caliphate filling the vacuum left by the retreat of the United States. To him that is a good thing. An accomplishment he is proud of. His primary foreign affairs goal is to transform not only America, but the world order as well. If anyone had described the President in these terms when he was first elected, I would have rejected them as the ravings of mad men.

When Vladimir Putin looks at the President, he sees a weak man who hasn’t the will or strength to stop him from annexing as much of the Ukraine as wants or to contest his power move into the Middle East which while very soon put Russia military into the Mediterranean with naval power and missile batteries installed in Syria. Putin doesn’t care one bit about Assad. His goal is to expand Russian power into the oil-producing regions of the Middle East and establish warm water ports for the Russian fleet. Neither Putin, the America progressive party, or Congressional Republicans understand the President is not acting out of weakness, though I believe he lacks physical courage, but he acts out of conviction. How else can anyone explain his foreign actions or job killing regulations by his administration?

The Advisor printed his journal entry and began to enter it into his journal with his slightly unsteady hand. The next time the President comes down, the Advisor thought, I just might tell him what his actions look like to America and its enemies. I’d like to discuss gun control with him. I know it isn’t the loss of life that is his point in his anti-gun crusade. If it was, he would be focused on places like Chicago and help the police and city  government to enforce existing gun laws. And it isn’t just using the issue to attack the opposition party. The President knows no socialist/communist government has ever taken control of an armed population. Slave holders always have guns. Slaves never do. Doesn’t that tell us everything we need to know?

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Barry Kelly, Conservative views, foreign policy, General, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Obama, oil, Putin, Russia

INSIGHTS 234 — RUSSIAN EMPIRE MOVES INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

Advisor's vault door“Mr. President, I want to read something you said last week when I asked, ‘Are you using the leading from behind strategy in the Middle East and primarily in Syria?’ And you answered, ‘Of course. My objective is to change or transform the world order. How could I do that if I was openly leading the action? I’m leading from behind. Iran, ISIS, and Russia are doing exactly what I want. If Russia ends up being a power in the Middle East with warm water ports for their warships and control of oil from the region won’t that end the strife and lead to a world society where the people will be much better off and the world’s wealth and resources will be more equitably distributed?

“‘Russia will have what they have always wanted. They have no desire to occupy Europe. The balance of world power will be forever changed for the better. The need for vast military expenditures will be gone. Colonialism, capitalism, and imperialism will be history. Those are the real evil “isms” of our world. Progressivism is the natural ideology for a world of equals.’”

“Given the very aggressive move by Putin into Syria in the last two weeks with his demand that U.S. aircraft no longer fly over Syria, will you need to change your approach?”

“Putin is following a long developed strategy followed by all the czars. He is the first to succeed in actually establishing a growing military presence in the Middle East. The Russian fleet will now have an all-weather sea port for their warships. He will be popular at home for a short time. Then the people will find out what it costs them to sponsor another client state. Control of Iraqi oil fields may provide some funds for Putin’s military build up and support for a bankrupt Syria but that will not be enough.

“He will soon have another Afghanistan on his hands. Remember how they moved into Afghanistan unopposed in President’s Carter’s one term? He was surprised. I am not. This a perfect response from Putin who is unknowingly assisting me in changing the current world order. Whether he stays for a decade or more in Syria, the Middle East will never be the same. The Christian, imperialistic, capitalistic western power will be balanced by the growing power of the Islamic nations who actually live in the Middle East. Those people will be governing themselves and using their wealth and intellectual resources for the good of a previously oppressed people.

“My concern is keeping the right wing ideologues from convincing my successor to oppose the Russian push into Syria. No matter what Putin does, I will not respond with American power. In a few more years American power both military and economically will be gone for good.”

“What about all the death and misery being inflicted on the people of Syria and Iraq?”

“It will pass in less than a decade. People always suffer when the tide of historical power shifts against existing rulers. Spreading Muslim people throughout the Christian world through chaotic refugee flows is not a bad thing. The shift in population demographics will actually act as a catalyst for a more rapid transformation in the Western world. I couldn’t be happier. Progress never takes place without chaos. The more chaos, the more rapid the pace of transformation can be.”

“Does anyone in your administration share your view of the world?”

“Really only one and she is constantly encouraging me to move more quickly.  A few others think they know but they don’t. Their thinking is still mired down in the Western approach of looking at governing as the constant solving of issues. As long as they stay out of the way, they do no harm in playing with transient problems that have no solution without transformation.”

“Mr. President, I think I’m safe in saying no other president has ever shared your view of America and the world.”

“I agree. See you next week. You are the only person I can truthfully talk to besides my co-partner in transformation. Good night.”

 

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Afghanistan, Barry Kelly, Capitalism, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Middle East, Obama, oil, political solutions, Politics, Progressives, Putin, Russia

INSIGHTS 228 — GETTING READY TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY

Advisor's vault doorThe Advisor was lost in thought, in between talks from his only visitor, the President.

The President has been so candid recently. I have to get ready to ask him some more challenging questions. I think he enjoys the challenge. He’s got to be immersed in the current economic crisis so I’ll start getting my background material ready. Many Americans do not see the economy, the process of making and selling things, as being different from the stock market. But they are two very different areas. While one affects the other to some degree, it is very difficult for experts to agree on the exact cause and effect of changes in the stock market. Economists talk knowingly about the state of the economy and what is needed to improve its performance. But in reality they should be called political economists because their analysis depends on whether they are supply-side economists or Keynesian economists. 

The President’s progressive wing of the Democratic Party is nearly exclusively Keynesian. Those people believe the level and management of government spending is the key to growing the economy. The opposing side of free market/supply side economists believe growth can only come through the capitalist process of making and selling products outside the governing process. The fewer the regulations and the lower the taxes, the more the economy is free to grow. In their minds, a growth rate of between 4 percent and 8 percent is ideal with a tax rate on corporations around 15 percent.

The Keynesian monetary policies have never worked anywhere, though they were tried extensively during the Roosevelt era. Since government spending on sectors such as infrastructure can only be financed from taxes from people and corporations, Keynesian management of the economy inhibits the growth that is necessary to finance needed infrastructure, human services, and the military. Most everyone is in favor of these items but only the progressives with their Keynesian finance managers believe spending on social welfare and infrastructure stimulate the economy to grow. The first place they look for money for social services and infrastructure is the military budget. Few progressives believe in maintaining a strong military. I must remember to ask the President about his views on Keynesian economics.

Regardless of the financial philosophy, effectiveness of the process must be based on a real reporting and understanding of the facts. When the administration and talking heads go on about the well-being of the economy, they are mostly talking about the stock market that has done very well. Indeed it should with the Federal Reserve printing $86,000,000,000 per month for a program called Qualitative Easing. This level of printing money went on for many months. If you could afford to invest, you did well. The President’s program, instead of distributing wealth to narrow the gap in income between economic classes, actually widened the gap. Turning from the stock market to the business of making and selling things, the real economy, you see a much different picture. Real unemployment is closer to 12 percent than the 5 percent the progressives claim. Employment participation rates are lower than at any time since the 1970s. There are more people on food stamps and welfare now than ever before and that is not just due to the growth in population. Health care costs are growing. Wages are stagnant. Graduating college students cannot find jobs. Student debt is way up. People have given up looking for non-existent jobs. The economy is way below the growth rate needed to sustain services and our national debt. The only measureable that is up is the number of people on welfare. I wonder what the President will say about his commitment to the redistribution of wealth.

The last area to ask him about will be the energy sector. I wonder what he’ll say about the Saudi’s program of pumping oil at a level that is continuing to increase the glut of crude on the market today. Doesn’t he realize the Saudis dumping oil on the energy market is motivated by their need to remain the predominated supplier of the worlds oil and to weaken Iran, Iraq, ISIS, Russia, and the United States? Their strategy is working. Many oil drillers in the United States are gone. They and others like them around the world cannot profitably sell oil much below $60 or $70. Unless the Saudis change their strategy, the current glut of oil may be with us for a few more years.

The Advisor stopped his pacing and his thought process.

I think that is enough for more than one session with the President, he thought, feeling more prepared.

 

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

Leave a comment

Filed under Barry Kelly, Capitalism, class warfare, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, financial policies, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Obama, oil, political solutions, Progressives, Russia, Saudia Arabia