Category Archives: Shiite

The Professor’s op-ed on the Middle East and the U.S.

In between honors classes one day, the Professor thought, “I just can’t stand it any longer. No one is telling the people the truth about the Middle East. Does the Obama Administration and the Clinton campaign think we are too dumb? Trump’s instincts are good, but he needs to bone up on the area. The Russians are not in the Middle East to fight ISIS and Putin is not about to make any deals that do not further his plan to hold a naval base on the Mediterranean and to be a major on the ground player in the oil patch. I just have to write an op-ed piece.”

He pulled his keyboard toward him, looked out over the bay, and began to write.

First, there are a couple of truths about our strategic past in the Middle East. Forget the lines and names drawn on maps of the Middle East. Think of the area divided between the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims with the nation of Israel maintaining a stronghold in the midst of the struggle for dominance by the Shia and Sunnis. The Iranians are the leaders of the Shias and the Saudis, Arabs of the Gulf States and Egypt leading the Sunni opposition.

ISIS, al-Qaeda and their splinter groups are Sunni. The Obama-Clinton group has thrown American support to the Iranians, who want to use their new power to dominate the Middle East. President Obama always intended to follow the Shia/Iranian lead. That is why the abrupt pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq as soon as Obama came to power. The Iranians wanted the U.S. forces out of Iraq so that the Iraqi Shia could assume full control over the Iraqi military and economy and oust Sunnis from the military and government. (Remember, the Iraqi led Sunni government under Saddam Hussein fought a very bloody war against the Iranians.)

The Iraqi Shia government is now firmly allied with Iran. This is a government in name only. Iranians control all major moves in their drive to control a Shia empire of what is now Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. ISIS with all the terrible atrocities they have committed represented Sunni opposition to Iranian strategic goals. When they are destroyed, the strongest power on the ground will be Iran. When Mosel falls, it will be with the heavy involvement of Iranian weapons and ground forces. The Turks will stay within their territory and the only other viable fighting force, the Kurds, will be isolated with dreams of their own homeland shattered. With all of the talk from Washington about arming the Kurds, we never did. The Iranians and the Turks do not want the Kurds to be armed with modern weapons. All the arms we said were being sent to the Kurds went through the Baghdad Shia government that never sent them onward. The Obama Administration, of course, knew the Kurds would never receive the weapons. There is literally nothing the Iranians want that the Obama/Clinton group will not do their best to supply. Just look at the recent deal Obama made with Iran on their nuclear weapons program. While not called a treaty, that was what this deal is. Why take that route? Simply a way to avoid the need for Congressional ratification. We, the people, and Congress still have not seen all the pieces of this executive action.

On the Russian side, Putin is a modern day czar of Russia. His goal is to re-establish as much of the old Soviet Empire as possible. The weakness of the Obama presidency has given him a grand opening. For many centuries, Russian czars dreamed and planned to acquire a warm-water port for their navy. Without firing a shot or endangering Russian soldiers, he has acquired Tartus in Syria as a Russian warm-water port. That is now a fact. The fleet is there and weapons to defend it are in place. Putin will do what he must to support Assad. He is not in Syria to fight ISIS. Aleppo is the only evidence anyone should need. ISIS was not there but Syrian anti-Assad forces were. The city is now rubble as a result of Russian historic lack of concern for collateral deaths when their critical national interests are involved. Since Iran is the local protector and supporter of Assad and Syria, Putin will make any deal necessary with Iran to protect his naval base at Tartus and his new role in Middle Eastern oil. Obama’s plan for Iranian hegemony in the Middle East is on solid ground with both U.S. and Russia supporting Iran and the Shia Muslims.

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INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 271 Letter From A Citizen To A President

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

Dear Mr. President:

I am a Korean War Veteran with 27 years of Cold War service, including two years in Vietnam and two years as a special assistant to President Reagan in the fields of intelligence, covert action and counter-terrorism. When you were elected, I had serious reservations about your ability to lead our nation, but I was pleased that America had elected a black president.

After your first month in office, I could see my fears about your capability to lead and protect America were not unfounded. I am now 85 and am determined to live long enough to see the damage you have done being repaired. That is a big job for I cannot point to anything you have done well as our President. The country is more divided now than at any time since the war in Vietnam. Russia and China are expanding. Our economy is a shadow of its past power. Our military forces are below the readiness levels prior to the WWII. Foreign leaders have no respect for you or America’s current world role. Former allies are mystified by both your actions and failures to act.

Our veterans and our workers are suffering under your leadership. Unemployment seems to be something you try to fix with bogus figures, much like our GNP annual rate. The middle class is vanishing and your constant speeches seldom fail to encourage class warfare. At least they did before I stopped listening to anything you say. The illegal and unchecked immigration you favor, while creating support for your progressive political base, puts additional obstacles in the path of American workers seeking employment.

As a direct result of your inaction and ‘leading from behind’ (which is not leading at all), the Middle East is in turmoil, millions of people have been displaced or killed. You have wasted the blood of our warriors and the nation’s treasury on your appeasement theories of foreign policy and warfare that have never worked and never will. Your anti-colonial infatuation with ‘One World Rule,’ the evils of American power, anti-capitalism, and support of Iran and Shiite Islam have no place in our past or future.

You are a true Socialist revolutionary who hasn’t realized yet that he has failed to transform America and that his time is now past. Please go quietly into history’s dust bin of failed leaders who never learned the difference between preaching about issues and actually working to fix national problems.

–BK

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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Filed under Barry Kelly, Capitalism, class warfare, Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, Middle East, Obama, Progressives, Shiite

INSIGHTS 242 THE REAL LEGACY

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

President Obama, photo by the New York Daily News.

Lets begin with the bottom line. President Obama has brought out the worst in America. The populace is more divided now than at any time after the Civil War. The economy is struggling. Employment participation rate is as low as it was in the late seventies. Wages are stagnant. More people are on food stamps than ever before. More people pay no federal taxes than do. Racism and class warfare is a common theme in White House messaging. The vaunted American military power has been diminished. Our traditional allies do not trust us and our enemies do not fear us. The President seems incapable of solving any national problems. When the economy is suffering with more people making do with less and the entire world in crises, President Obama constantly tells the American people ‘climate change’ is our biggest threat and that gun control is his number one priority along with closing Guantanamo Bay’s prison for foreign terrorist prisoners. He refuses to work with Congress and has made a mockery of the separation of powers doctrine and the rule of law. America’s best in the world medical system is mired in the debt and chaos of his medical plan, the infamous Obamacare. His deal with Iran must be the worst agreement any president ever made with an enemy state. In bygone times a good case would be made for his impeachment.

That is his legacy. But that is not what he has been about. His self assessment is based on other actions and on those he has made real progress. He wants to be known as the president who has advanced the cause of Socialism and income distribution farther than any other American President. Obamacare never was about healthcare. It is and was about government control of 8% of the economy. Our President has also been very effective in diminishing the very fine military machine he inherited with the purpose of making it unlikely America could ever again act as the world power. Every economic action his Administration has taken has weakened the economy with unneeded regulations. The energy industry has hung on in spite of his war on traditional energy sources. Without the Obama anchor we would be exporting billions of dollars of energy in the form of crude and refined oil products as well as natural gas in liquid form. An important result of increased American energy production is that it would free Europe of dependency on Russian oil and gas and far reduced Putin’s ability to expand the Russian empire by taking away his primary source of funds.

The President’s foreign policy has endangered Israel, consolidated Iran’s control of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The old power structure that allied Sunni nations with America is rapidly disappearing. Russia’s historical effort to secure a warm water port for its fleet has been accomplished. Even worse Russia now has a military presence astride the oil production fields and transportation network. The Middle East is now on the verge of a wide-spread war of Sunni Muslims against Shiite Muslims. The most likely result will be the emergence of Iran, with backing from Russia and China to be the dominate power in the area.

Through all this turmoil the World has been hoping for American leadership to protect the peace and independence of sovereign nations. President’s Obama’s leading from behind has failed them and us but has advanced the President’s ideological goals. Socialist and Communist historians will treat his Presidency with praise and reverence. Others won’t.

 

Written by the author of the Jack Brandon adventure mystery novels. The above is the result of my analysis of the President’s actions and policies from a conservative view point.

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INSIGHTS 241 — THE ADVISOR CRITICIZES THE PRESIDENT’S SPEECH

Advisor's vault doorBy his first comment, the Advisor could tell he had hit a presidential nerve. In an angry voice, the President said, “What do you mean I live in a different universe?”

“Simply judging by your last speech on the terrorism incident in San Bernardino, California. You focused on gun control, said don’t blame Islam, touted the success of your existing strategy against ISIS or ISIL and the effectiveness of your multination coalition, and the arming of Sunni and Kurdish forces with more Special Forces support and a continuation of the bombing of ISIS targets and the need for patience. Are you not aware that no one believes any of this?” The Advisor waved one of his arms across the table.

The President sat back in his chair. “You are so wrong. All my advisors, those who don’t live in a cave, tell me my speech was near perfect. I know my transformation program is going well. I’m close to closing Guantanamo Bay and issuing an executive order to strengthen existing gun regulations.”

The Advisor paused. “I don’t believe any of that has anything real to do with the threat from Islamic jihadists. Your statement that the Islamic religion has nothing to do with terrorist attacks is neither accurate nor believable by anyone living in the modern world. Of course, not all Muslims are terrorists, but nearly all of today’s terrorist attacks are carried out by Muslims in the name of Islam. Moderate Muslims are not speaking out against jihadists and are not helping to prevent the radicals from taking control of the Islamic world. What do you think the Caliphate ISIS is establishing is all about? Closing Guantanamo Bay and more gun control regulation actions make people wonder what you are thinking about and why aren’t you focusing on the real problem of terrorism being exported from Islamic safe havens?”

“Well, is this the real Advisor exposing his true beliefs? You just don’t understand. Your ancestors never suffered under British colonialism. My grandfather and father both lived under the British boot. They were persecuted for their beliefs.”

“I cannot give you the advice I think you can use without injecting my own set of values and historical information base. No, my ancestors did not suffer under British colonialism. My ancestors were slaves brought from Africa in American and European ships loaded with Africans captured and sold to them by Arab Muslims and some Muslim-Africans with Arab names.

“American blacks fought for and won legal and actual freedom. Freedom wasn’t given to us. We fought for it. That is something you don’t understand about black history in America. You and your Kenyan family never were part of the King crusade. I don’t know about your white mother.

“We blacks have and have had our problems with equality and opportunity in America but we are proud to be Americans. We built a large part of this nation and are just in the last generation coming into enjoying our share in the American dream. Islamic terrorism is not just a threat to wealthy white America, it is a threat to all Americans of all classes. Under rule by the Progressive Party, do you think a boy from your background could become president of the United States? Isn’t that a real example of social mobility between economic classes in America?”

Instead of answering, the President stormed out and slammed the old vault door.

The Advisor thought, he might not come back and at this point, I really don’t care. I’ve no more advice I can offer. It is probably time to make my last entries and close my journal. 

 

 

 

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INSIGHTS 211 — THE ADVISOR’S LETTER TO AMERICANS

 

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor turned away from his multi-screen display of world events in disgust. It was hard to watch the fall of American prestige and respect in all quarters of the world.

Like it for not, Mr. President, he thought, the American people expect you to be a leader. Leading from behind is only a fiction that obscures the fact nothing is being done, even from behind. What world power, in history, has ever so willingly given up a leadership role? The world may not have always liked the way we used our power, but the vast majority of nations recognized the world was safer when America was willing to be the the policeman when the need was dire.

There is also no leadership in domestic America. Look at the disgrace of the riots in Ferguson and Baltimore. The White House and the Justice Department led the racist riots by both their actions and rhetoric. The only sane thing for individual policemen to do is to avoid aggressive enforcement of the law. To stay out of questionable areas. To not take risks. It is not a matter of teaching people a lesson, it is a matter of the survival of every policeman and his or her job. Who would be willing to take real risks under national, state, and city admininstrations that pander to the mobs and professional race mongers?

Still disgusted, the Advisor turned off his screens that displayed the news and got up from his chair, pacing around his room.

On the foreign scene, what soldier is willing to go to war for a commander-in-chief who not only doesn’t have a bit of military experience but who actually despises the American military and is doing his best to destroy its former effectiveness while he tells lies about his successes? Iran, Russia, the Middle East, China, North Korea, Cuba, Iraq, and Syria have all profited by a feckless exercise of appeasement diplomacy conducted by emissaries who were and are ideally suited to enthusiastically play their assigned feckless appeasement diplomacy role on the world scene. How dumb can they be? A beginner’s understanding of history just before World War II clearly shows appeasement diplomacy leads to war not peace. To make matters worse, most of our once-respected media ignores the truth and supports the slide of American power and respect in the world. Where are the cries for things like justice, peace, truth, and honest leadership instead of a series of big lies told over and over?

Even from my traditional position of being an unbiased advisor to the president, I can not tell him these truths for he already knows them. Our president counts what I call failures as successes. In historical perspective, he is a destroyer not a builder. And from this strange ideology he is leading the charge to transform America. The real problem is not the president. He told us what he was going to do. The problem is the people who voted for him not once, but twice, and still think he and his former Secretary of State are and will be the best for the nation. As a nation and a civilization we are at a tipping point. If we tip much further it will be impossible to stop the decline. When the takers outnumber the givers, the odds are not good.

With nothing else to do, the Advisor decided to make a fresh pot of coffee. He wasn’t sleeping much these days, anyway.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available nationwide from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

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INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party,  he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different  words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by  vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders.  Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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