Tag Archives: Iran

INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 260: Lost in the Wilderness

Sub Rosa Front Cover 

 

The Iraqi Army is attacking the ISIS stronghold of Fallujah that is also the place al Qaeda Iraq was born. The struggle in Iraq was so much simpler when the U.S. Marines recaptured Fallujah. Much blood and treasure was spent in the heroic Marine push into Fallujah. A decade later more blood, including some more American blood, will be spent in another abortive attempt to ignore facts on the ground and restore a Shiite Iraqi government to power.

It has been apparent for many years that Iraq is not now and never was a cohesive nation. Harsh Sunni dictators kept the lines on the maps that were labelled Iraq in place. The other two elements in Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds, did not share in the governing process or in the distribution of wealth. The Sunni Army, police and Intelligence forces kept them in place until the forces of the United States destroyed the Iraqi Sunni Army and governing infrastructure in order to install a Western type parliamentary government. In the process we destroyed the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. We know how to fight and win battles. We do not know how to do the nation building required to force fit a western democracy type rule in a part of the world that has no history of democracy or foundation of Western values. Both Presidents Bush and Obama share the blame for the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

Back to Fallujah and facts on the ground. Iraq today is totally a Shiite nation. The ISIS movement is overwhelmingly Sunni and the Kurds are fighting to establish a Kurdistan nation. They will fight to resist any Iraqi Government that tries to subject Kurds to rule from Shiite Baghdad or a Sunni rule in any form, ISIS or not ISIS.

The real threat in the area is Shiite Iran who intends to end up incorporating all of Shiite Iraq and the Iraqi oil reserves. What forces are surrounding Fallujah in the current struggle? Yes! Iranian militias, another name for Iranian government trained and equipped troops, who intend to destroy all Sunni armed groups in the region that could threaten their takeover of Shiite Iraq including Baghdad and south to the Gulf. An Iraqi victory in Fallujah will be a victory for Iran.

US airpower and advisors will be fighting on the side of Shiite Iran against the wishes of our traditional Sunni allies and Israel who want ISIS destroyed but not at the emergence of a more powerful Iran. That is fine with our leadership. The President and his Administration are firmly in the Iranian group. Can there be any doubt after some of the details of the Iranian Nuclear Treaty which is not a treaty have leaked?

Some things cannot be put back in the box and this is one of them.

 

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INSIGHTS 226 — ARE WE THERE YET?

Advisor's vault doorThe president hadn’t been back down to see the Advisor for several days. The Advisor spent his time going back over the last several meetings. The president’s motivation was becoming clearer. The Advisor felt he was now able to understand the president’s actions. Once you broke the code his actions were understandable, but many would always believe he was a failed president who was just inept with a strange view of the world. The Advisor decided to record his thoughts in his journal.

The president has only one goal and that is to transform America into a socialist nation to the left of the European model of socialism. He doesn’t care about solving problems that do not contribute to his transformation process. For example, he has long known the Affordable Care Act could not provide medical care to the nation’s population. But it does bring nearly 8 percent of the economy under government management. Under his health care program, the medical treatment of citizens, especially the aged, would be become so costly with growing chaos that the people would clamor for the single payer system of true socialized medicine.  A giant step toward complete socialization.

Under the Dodd/Frank financial legislation, the nation’s financial system is steadily coming more under the control of the federal government. Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy. Dodd/Frank regulations and the Keynesian economic policies of the Federal Reserve  are forcing the closure of small local banks that provided credit to small businesses and new startups. Without access to local credit, many small businesses are downsizing or going out of business. Bringing all commerce under control of the federal government is a necessary step toward national socialism.

Large corporations are not immune from the impact of endless regulations flowing from the federal government. The coal industry is vanishing under this onslaught. Costs and regulations are preventing the building of new power plants and refineries. Exploration for new drilling sites is now limited to privately held or state-owned land. Even those areas are the target of increasing regulations. The tax structure with the highest corporate tax rate in the developed  world is weakening the competitiveness of American businesses. You don’t need a revolution to convert a capitalist, free market economy into a socialist economy. The impact of high taxes, regulations that set standards for industry that cannot be met or are so costly they will destroy capitalism are enough.  A few more years of progressive rule and the federal government will control whatever industries they chose.

Socialism cannot be forced upon a nation with a military force that is not totally controlled by a progressive/socialist elite and where the population is armed. Therefore, the government must use whatever methods necessary to take weapons away from the citizens. The military can be lured into socialism by cutting funds, discouraging the development of new weapons, reducing the size of the armed forces, and throwing thousands of young men and women out into an economy with no jobs. What will these disillusioned and angry young people do? Probably blame the wrong causes.

The last piece the president needs to transform America is to weaken the opposition. He has surely done that. Even though the people have spoken and rejected progressive control of the Congress and given the Republicans control of both Houses, the same hapless ineffective leaders are still in power. They don’t even know what is going on and are acting as if the president’s transformation of America is something they can handle over time by routine congressional procedures. By the time they wake up, it will be too late.

Example: The Iran deal. This is a treaty by any definition, yet the Senate let the president take this action under his executive powers. If this were a treaty, it would need 60 votes in the Senate to approve it.

Who can put a halt to transformation? The Supreme Court and the civil service are already won over to the progressive side. Only a new conservative strong leader can begin to turn this errant ship around. Time is running out.

 

This is a  account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novels at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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INSIGHTS 222 — THE ADVISOR WANTS TO KNOW: WHY IRAN NOW?

Advisor's vault door“Mr. President, good to see you again so soon.  Your visits help me deal with this isolated living.”

“Are you saying you never leave this place for any reason?”

“For a serious, life-threatening health problem that can’t be handled remotely, I’ll be taken to a private hospital facility. Normally people in this place die here. My predecessor died here just after your second-term victory.”

“I’m impressed by the dedication, if not the choice of occupations and working conditions. Do you have another question for me?”

“Yes. I was encouraged by your candor in answering my last question about closing Guantanamo Bay. My question today is why are you so intent on making a deal with Iran?”

“For the record, I didn’t believe that sanctions would stop Iran from building nuclear weapons. Something else had to be done or the Israelis would launch a surprise air attack on Iran’s nuclear industry that could set off a much wider war. In a sense, my deal with Iran pre-empts the Israelis and, therefore, the initiation of a big war that could spread out of the Middle East. My closest advisor in the White House has strong ties to Iran and has convinced me there was and is no other option.”

“Yes, but what about Iran’s poor record of living up to agreements and their sponsorship of terrorist groups in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria?”

“When sovereign nations live up to agreements it is because they have no other choice. Do you want me to recite the times America has failed to abide by agreements that were no longer economically or geo-politically advantageous, such as our treaties with the Indian nations and some third world countries?”

“No. That will not be necessary. There is some truth to your position. Strong nations often ignore treaties or agreements that are no longer of real use. But why do you think Israel will not attack nuclear facilities in Iran? Iran has promised to wipe Israel off the world’s map!”

“Israel knows both China and Russia will back Iran against them. A major portion of the funds being released to Iran and the income they will receive from sales of their oil will go to China and Russia to purchase defensive and offensive weapons. If Israel is going to strike, it must be soon. The window is closing with the import of air and ground defense systems from Russia and China. I have a much better intuitive understanding of the Middle East and the Muslim world than my critics. You see, I do not have the nationalist baggage most Americans carry. I don’t see the great things they believe their power and influence has accomplished on an international basis. From the Crusades to the centuries of Western Imperialism, America has been the enemy of the Muslim world. Iran has been, for much of recorded history, a formidable empire. Why does Iran not have a right to recover their past greatness by having modern weapons and extending their influence over the more primitive Sunni Arab states? At heart, I am a citizen of the world. Part Christian, part Muslim but the strongest part is Islam of the third world, like my father.”

“What do you hope will be accomplished by your agreement with Iran?”

“It will bring about another power center in the world to complete with Western colonialism and capitalism. The same process will also transform the traditional power structure in the Middle East where the Sunnis of the past have been allied too close to the West because of the need to sell their oil to the developed world. If Iran can, by whatever means, take control of the flow of oil from the Middle East and direct it more equitably to other parts of the world. I want to not only transform America, but the Middle East as well. Now I have to go. I hope these talks are helping you to understand my policies.”

“Thank you, Mr. President. Yes, I can see more clearly what you are trying to achieve. May I ask more questions on your next visit?”

“Yes, but now I must go. I find talking to you helps me to better understand what I must do in my remaining time. Goodnight.”

“Goodnight, Mr. President.”

The above is a fictional account of a meeting that never took place, but it could have.

The author’s latest Jack Brandon novel, ISIS Quiet Justice, is available at your local book store and in ebook format from Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble. Follow the author on Twitter at @factsfictions80.

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INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party,  he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different  words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by  vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders.  Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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INSIGHTS 208 — THE ADVISOR CORRECTS A FALSE NARRATIVE

Advisor's vault door

During one of the long intervals between presidential visits to The Advisor’s underground office, the Advisor thought to himself: if no one else will get history right and correct the false narratives circulating from the White House and the liberal press, my journals and my Facebook account will contain a clear report of what was happening during my term as the Advisor. 

The Bush regime won the war but paved the way for a failed Iraqi government when they destroyed the Iraqi army and the Bath party of Saddam Hussein. None of the existing infrastructure every government needs was left. To make matters worse, the Advisor thought, shaking his head, the Bush administration failed to understand a Shiite/al-Maliki government would never be a check to the Shiite nation of Iran. Instead, the Iranians ended up owning Maliki who preceded to further weaken the Sunnis and the Kurds. For all the American blood and treasure the Bush administration spent in Iraq, little was left for Obama to work with, especially given his primary motive to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible. I doubt President Obama, or either of his inept secretaries of state, ever saw the real geo-political problem a Maliki government would cause. You would think that President Obama, who leans hard in the direction of supporting Sunni Muslims, would have recognized the growth and consequences of Shiite power in Iraq. “Some would argue that he didn’t care about Iraq, his sights were set on using Iran to transform the traditional world order in the Middle East,” he said aloud to no one. “And I am one of them.”

The Advisor sat down at his desk and continued musing. You didn’t need timely intelligence, which Obama claims he never received, to see the Sunni Islamic radicals that joined the rebellion against Syrian Shiite President Assad could easily cross the border into Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunni tribes alienated by Maliki were ready to provide support in the form of manpower, logistics, weapons, and money. Borders mean nothing if they are not defended.

The result of the ISIS invasion of Iraq is that tribal and religious areas no longer follow the lines drawn by western diplomats after World War I. All remnants of the Shiite/Maliki government are being forced to fall back into Shiite populated areas, primarily south of Baghdad. A realistic map of Iraq will soon show Sunniland, Kurdistan and Shiiteland. The Sunnis and the Kurds will never go back into a centralized Shiite-run government. That failed experiment is over. Only more American blood and treasure could delay the collapse of Iraq, and for what? Our government needs to stop believing an Iraqi centralized government is possible. It is not.

Our policy should be to support the Kurds with modern weapons and monetary aid until their own fighters get properly equipped and to persuade the outside Sunni world to help bring the ISIS under some restraint. In the meantime, use unfettered air power and required boots-on-the-ground to break the advance of ISIS and stop their atrocities against the Christians and other religious groups ISIS is now slaughtering. Some massive evacuations of endangered refugees may be necessary. All because two administrations failed to see the Middle East as it is. Hawks and doves are equally to blame.

With this president’s commitment to Iran. I don’t believe he will allow his administration to support the Kurds or Sunnis in Iraq. They certainly have not sent needed supplies to the Kurds despite their statements to the contrary.

The Advisor sat in silence for a few moments before picking up his pen and putting his thoughts down on a fresh page in his journal.

 

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and Kindle formats.This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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INSIGHTS 207 – THE ADVISOR EXPOSES A FALSE NARRATIVE

Advisor's vault door

For months, the Advisor had been requesting the INSIGHT COUNCIL to approve his application to establish a Facebook page. The approval was finally granted but the Facebook page would be established and controlled by the Council. They reminded him that the only reason they were allowing this breech of protocol is because they are convinced he is facing a unique problem due to the very real conflict between the traditional mission to advise the president and the overriding need to protect and defend the nation and its unique Constitution.

The Advisor thought, the first thing I want to take on are the false narratives that flourish in people addicted to ‘sound bites’ and the last thing they heard from anyone. False narratives are a danger because with the constant bombardment of information that might improve rating numbers, media outlets will knowingly or unknowingly accept the false narrative and use it over and over. Used very much like past and present totalitarian regimes employed and employ the big lie. Repeat it enough and people will begin to believe the false narrative is the true story.

One of the Advisor’s pleasures was to sit down at his keyboard and let his fingers convert thoughts into text. There was a kind of beauty in the process that he couldn’t see when using his fountain pen to write in his journals.

The false narrative now sweeping the country, especially when interviewing presidential candidates is, “If you knew what we know now, would you have sent troops into Iraq during the second Bush presidency?”

The first candidate to respond to this query gave an incredibly stupid answer. No one could have known or even guessed that Americans would elect a man with Barack Obama’s ideology and transforming American program to the White House. Under a normal president, either Republican or Democrat, we would not have totally abandoned the fledging government in Iraq. In the vacuum Obama created, the Iraqis turned to their Shiite neighbor, Iran. It all went downhill from there. We were once the dominant power in the Middle East. No more. We have abandoned Israel and our Sunni allies in favor of Iran. In the years to come, historians will wonder how one man could have caused so many deaths and so much chaos in six years and he isn’t done yet.

And that is not the end of the false narrative. The truth is that getting rid of Saddam Hussein with his genocide policies against Iraqis of different political and religious beliefs was a good thing. Did we forget his invasion of Kuwait? Did we forget that he had used poison gas against the Kurds and the Shiites and our troops found tens of thousands of chemical protection suits and gas masks for Iraqi soldiers? Isn’t poison gas a “weapon of mass destruction?” Did we forget he was funding research into the development of biological weapons and nuclear weapons? The number one terrorist in the world, Abu Nadal, was living in Iraq. A terrorist training site with the shell of a large jet for trainees to practice hijackings with an adjoining military  barracks was discovered during the invasion.

Did the Bush Administration make several serious mistakes? Yes! And so did Obama. Did those mistakes cost American and Iraqi lives. Yes! Is this a subject for national debate. Yes and Yes! If Iraq was today a struggling infant democracy with conflicts among the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites held in check by an American presence and power, would such a question have been asked? I don’t think so.

CIA Headquarters has the words, “THE TRUTH SHALL MAKE YOU FREE” inscribed on their wall. The other side of that inscription is “ACCEPTING FALSE NARRATIVES WILL MAKE YOU SLAVES.”

 

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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