Tag Archives: iraq

INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 265: FICTION, A WINDOW INTO TODAY’S ISIS WAR IN AMERICA

Justice without MercyBlood Justice Front CoverQuiet Justice coverBarry Kelly's fourth novel

The goal of radical Islam is not just to disrupt Western nations. The goal is world domination. A world that will then live under Sharia law. That includes you, your children, and grandchildren. So don’t you think you should know more about it than the news media gives you in sound bites?

I have followed this subject for several decades as a CIA officer, a Special Assistant to President Reagan with responsibilities of being his point on terrorism and intelligence, and from the vantage point of several field assignments, including Vietnam, South Asia, Moscow and the Middle East. Much of my knowledge and experience is contained in the novels I have written. Of course, I would like to be a best-selling author but, also, I want to share my knowledge with my readers. My first two novels, “Justice Beyond Law” and “Justice Without Mercy,” take the reader through the setup of terrorist cells and targets including the recruitment and training of Americans by Islamists to attack soft targets in America. These novels also show that the Obama administration’s blind reliance on “law and order” tactics cannot win the war against terrorism. All of the following novels are in the Jack Brandon Justice series.

Justice Beyond Law, introduces Jack Brandon and shows how a renegade KGB officer (Yuri) uses an abandoned network of KGB agents infiltrated into America years ago for his personal profit. The strategy Yuri uses to turn his connections into a profit-making enterprise and to manage his diverse network with agents of different skills is more than plausible. The methods he uses strain the traditional law and order approach to terrorism. The traditional approach involves the collection of evidence that will stand up in a court system bound to provide the protections of our Constitution and the rules of due process to all residents, legal or illegal. The collection period is followed by an indictment, the issue of warrants, an arrest, and finally a trial. An immense effort over a long period, but a very important element of our citizen rights. The heroes of this novel believe that, when dealing with terrorists who are in the country illegally, sometimes the safety of our people requires faster action than the law and order process allows.

Run to Freedom, is the prequel to the Jack Brandon action series. In this story I rely heavily upon my knowledge of the old USSR and its KGB intelligence apparatus. The story starts in 1920 in Siberia, with a little known deployment of American troops, just as WWI was wrapping up. In this novel the readers will travel from Russia, to Poland, to Canada and several cities in America, as Peter Brandon, Jack’s father, tries to escape the KGB in America. The forces the KGB deploys in America to capture or kill Peter are entirely within the capabilities of Russian intelligence in 1970′s America, as are the methods Peter uses to escape the dragnet.

Justice Without Mercy, shows the process an extremist Muslim group like al Qaeda uses to set up a series of terrorist acts in America to weaken the resolve of the people and lessen their trust in government to protect them. The plot of this novel is more probable than most people believe. Traditional law and order process is not capable of dealing with the fast-moving action of terrorism in the homeland. The law and order process pushed by the Obama administration, particularly by the Department of Justice, is more political than an effective counter-terrorist approach. There is a war brought by Islamic Jihadists against us. It needs to be fought with a similar approach. Foreign Jihadists don’t qualify for the protections of our Constitution.

The two following novels were written more than two years before the ISIS attacks in Paris, San Borodino and Orlando

Quiet Justice follows Jack and his growing team as they join with the CIA to take down ISIS terrorists in Jacksonville, Florida, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Charleston, South Carolina, and on the terrorists’ own turf in Fallujah, Iraq. This adventure in the Jack Brandon series pits Jack’s wits against those of a terrorist known as ‘The Fist of Islam,’ who has been converting U.S. citizens into warriors for Islam.

       Blood Justice, picks up the tale of another intriguing plot by an ISIS group in Iraq to bring the battlefield to the American homeland. Jack Brandon and his group are asked by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency to be the spearhead in the defense of America from this massive plot. It is hard to imagine that the traditional tools of law and order can win a war against the forces of radical Islam.

All these books have been reviewed by the CIA to prevent the disclosure of classified information.

The author has 27 years of government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as a Special Assistant. His books can be found at Amazon, Amazon Kindle, Barnes and Noble, Nook or ordered through your local book store.

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INSIGHTS 260: Lost in the Wilderness

Sub Rosa Front Cover 

 

The Iraqi Army is attacking the ISIS stronghold of Fallujah that is also the place al Qaeda Iraq was born. The struggle in Iraq was so much simpler when the U.S. Marines recaptured Fallujah. Much blood and treasure was spent in the heroic Marine push into Fallujah. A decade later more blood, including some more American blood, will be spent in another abortive attempt to ignore facts on the ground and restore a Shiite Iraqi government to power.

It has been apparent for many years that Iraq is not now and never was a cohesive nation. Harsh Sunni dictators kept the lines on the maps that were labelled Iraq in place. The other two elements in Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds, did not share in the governing process or in the distribution of wealth. The Sunni Army, police and Intelligence forces kept them in place until the forces of the United States destroyed the Iraqi Sunni Army and governing infrastructure in order to install a Western type parliamentary government. In the process we destroyed the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. We know how to fight and win battles. We do not know how to do the nation building required to force fit a western democracy type rule in a part of the world that has no history of democracy or foundation of Western values. Both Presidents Bush and Obama share the blame for the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

Back to Fallujah and facts on the ground. Iraq today is totally a Shiite nation. The ISIS movement is overwhelmingly Sunni and the Kurds are fighting to establish a Kurdistan nation. They will fight to resist any Iraqi Government that tries to subject Kurds to rule from Shiite Baghdad or a Sunni rule in any form, ISIS or not ISIS.

The real threat in the area is Shiite Iran who intends to end up incorporating all of Shiite Iraq and the Iraqi oil reserves. What forces are surrounding Fallujah in the current struggle? Yes! Iranian militias, another name for Iranian government trained and equipped troops, who intend to destroy all Sunni armed groups in the region that could threaten their takeover of Shiite Iraq including Baghdad and south to the Gulf. An Iraqi victory in Fallujah will be a victory for Iran.

US airpower and advisors will be fighting on the side of Shiite Iran against the wishes of our traditional Sunni allies and Israel who want ISIS destroyed but not at the emergence of a more powerful Iran. That is fine with our leadership. The President and his Administration are firmly in the Iranian group. Can there be any doubt after some of the details of the Iranian Nuclear Treaty which is not a treaty have leaked?

Some things cannot be put back in the box and this is one of them.

 

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INSIGHTS 241 — THE ADVISOR CRITICIZES THE PRESIDENT’S SPEECH

Advisor's vault doorBy his first comment, the Advisor could tell he had hit a presidential nerve. In an angry voice, the President said, “What do you mean I live in a different universe?”

“Simply judging by your last speech on the terrorism incident in San Bernardino, California. You focused on gun control, said don’t blame Islam, touted the success of your existing strategy against ISIS or ISIL and the effectiveness of your multination coalition, and the arming of Sunni and Kurdish forces with more Special Forces support and a continuation of the bombing of ISIS targets and the need for patience. Are you not aware that no one believes any of this?” The Advisor waved one of his arms across the table.

The President sat back in his chair. “You are so wrong. All my advisors, those who don’t live in a cave, tell me my speech was near perfect. I know my transformation program is going well. I’m close to closing Guantanamo Bay and issuing an executive order to strengthen existing gun regulations.”

The Advisor paused. “I don’t believe any of that has anything real to do with the threat from Islamic jihadists. Your statement that the Islamic religion has nothing to do with terrorist attacks is neither accurate nor believable by anyone living in the modern world. Of course, not all Muslims are terrorists, but nearly all of today’s terrorist attacks are carried out by Muslims in the name of Islam. Moderate Muslims are not speaking out against jihadists and are not helping to prevent the radicals from taking control of the Islamic world. What do you think the Caliphate ISIS is establishing is all about? Closing Guantanamo Bay and more gun control regulation actions make people wonder what you are thinking about and why aren’t you focusing on the real problem of terrorism being exported from Islamic safe havens?”

“Well, is this the real Advisor exposing his true beliefs? You just don’t understand. Your ancestors never suffered under British colonialism. My grandfather and father both lived under the British boot. They were persecuted for their beliefs.”

“I cannot give you the advice I think you can use without injecting my own set of values and historical information base. No, my ancestors did not suffer under British colonialism. My ancestors were slaves brought from Africa in American and European ships loaded with Africans captured and sold to them by Arab Muslims and some Muslim-Africans with Arab names.

“American blacks fought for and won legal and actual freedom. Freedom wasn’t given to us. We fought for it. That is something you don’t understand about black history in America. You and your Kenyan family never were part of the King crusade. I don’t know about your white mother.

“We blacks have and have had our problems with equality and opportunity in America but we are proud to be Americans. We built a large part of this nation and are just in the last generation coming into enjoying our share in the American dream. Islamic terrorism is not just a threat to wealthy white America, it is a threat to all Americans of all classes. Under rule by the Progressive Party, do you think a boy from your background could become president of the United States? Isn’t that a real example of social mobility between economic classes in America?”

Instead of answering, the President stormed out and slammed the old vault door.

The Advisor thought, he might not come back and at this point, I really don’t care. I’ve no more advice I can offer. It is probably time to make my last entries and close my journal. 

 

 

 

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INSIGHTS 234 — RUSSIAN EMPIRE MOVES INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

Advisor's vault door“Mr. President, I want to read something you said last week when I asked, ‘Are you using the leading from behind strategy in the Middle East and primarily in Syria?’ And you answered, ‘Of course. My objective is to change or transform the world order. How could I do that if I was openly leading the action? I’m leading from behind. Iran, ISIS, and Russia are doing exactly what I want. If Russia ends up being a power in the Middle East with warm water ports for their warships and control of oil from the region won’t that end the strife and lead to a world society where the people will be much better off and the world’s wealth and resources will be more equitably distributed?

“‘Russia will have what they have always wanted. They have no desire to occupy Europe. The balance of world power will be forever changed for the better. The need for vast military expenditures will be gone. Colonialism, capitalism, and imperialism will be history. Those are the real evil “isms” of our world. Progressivism is the natural ideology for a world of equals.’”

“Given the very aggressive move by Putin into Syria in the last two weeks with his demand that U.S. aircraft no longer fly over Syria, will you need to change your approach?”

“Putin is following a long developed strategy followed by all the czars. He is the first to succeed in actually establishing a growing military presence in the Middle East. The Russian fleet will now have an all-weather sea port for their warships. He will be popular at home for a short time. Then the people will find out what it costs them to sponsor another client state. Control of Iraqi oil fields may provide some funds for Putin’s military build up and support for a bankrupt Syria but that will not be enough.

“He will soon have another Afghanistan on his hands. Remember how they moved into Afghanistan unopposed in President’s Carter’s one term? He was surprised. I am not. This a perfect response from Putin who is unknowingly assisting me in changing the current world order. Whether he stays for a decade or more in Syria, the Middle East will never be the same. The Christian, imperialistic, capitalistic western power will be balanced by the growing power of the Islamic nations who actually live in the Middle East. Those people will be governing themselves and using their wealth and intellectual resources for the good of a previously oppressed people.

“My concern is keeping the right wing ideologues from convincing my successor to oppose the Russian push into Syria. No matter what Putin does, I will not respond with American power. In a few more years American power both military and economically will be gone for good.”

“What about all the death and misery being inflicted on the people of Syria and Iraq?”

“It will pass in less than a decade. People always suffer when the tide of historical power shifts against existing rulers. Spreading Muslim people throughout the Christian world through chaotic refugee flows is not a bad thing. The shift in population demographics will actually act as a catalyst for a more rapid transformation in the Western world. I couldn’t be happier. Progress never takes place without chaos. The more chaos, the more rapid the pace of transformation can be.”

“Does anyone in your administration share your view of the world?”

“Really only one and she is constantly encouraging me to move more quickly.  A few others think they know but they don’t. Their thinking is still mired down in the Western approach of looking at governing as the constant solving of issues. As long as they stay out of the way, they do no harm in playing with transient problems that have no solution without transformation.”

“Mr. President, I think I’m safe in saying no other president has ever shared your view of America and the world.”

“I agree. See you next week. You are the only person I can truthfully talk to besides my co-partner in transformation. Good night.”

 

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

 

 

 

 

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INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party,  he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different  words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by  vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders.  Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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INSIGHTS 208 — THE ADVISOR CORRECTS A FALSE NARRATIVE

Advisor's vault door

During one of the long intervals between presidential visits to The Advisor’s underground office, the Advisor thought to himself: if no one else will get history right and correct the false narratives circulating from the White House and the liberal press, my journals and my Facebook account will contain a clear report of what was happening during my term as the Advisor. 

The Bush regime won the war but paved the way for a failed Iraqi government when they destroyed the Iraqi army and the Bath party of Saddam Hussein. None of the existing infrastructure every government needs was left. To make matters worse, the Advisor thought, shaking his head, the Bush administration failed to understand a Shiite/al-Maliki government would never be a check to the Shiite nation of Iran. Instead, the Iranians ended up owning Maliki who preceded to further weaken the Sunnis and the Kurds. For all the American blood and treasure the Bush administration spent in Iraq, little was left for Obama to work with, especially given his primary motive to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible. I doubt President Obama, or either of his inept secretaries of state, ever saw the real geo-political problem a Maliki government would cause. You would think that President Obama, who leans hard in the direction of supporting Sunni Muslims, would have recognized the growth and consequences of Shiite power in Iraq. “Some would argue that he didn’t care about Iraq, his sights were set on using Iran to transform the traditional world order in the Middle East,” he said aloud to no one. “And I am one of them.”

The Advisor sat down at his desk and continued musing. You didn’t need timely intelligence, which Obama claims he never received, to see the Sunni Islamic radicals that joined the rebellion against Syrian Shiite President Assad could easily cross the border into Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunni tribes alienated by Maliki were ready to provide support in the form of manpower, logistics, weapons, and money. Borders mean nothing if they are not defended.

The result of the ISIS invasion of Iraq is that tribal and religious areas no longer follow the lines drawn by western diplomats after World War I. All remnants of the Shiite/Maliki government are being forced to fall back into Shiite populated areas, primarily south of Baghdad. A realistic map of Iraq will soon show Sunniland, Kurdistan and Shiiteland. The Sunnis and the Kurds will never go back into a centralized Shiite-run government. That failed experiment is over. Only more American blood and treasure could delay the collapse of Iraq, and for what? Our government needs to stop believing an Iraqi centralized government is possible. It is not.

Our policy should be to support the Kurds with modern weapons and monetary aid until their own fighters get properly equipped and to persuade the outside Sunni world to help bring the ISIS under some restraint. In the meantime, use unfettered air power and required boots-on-the-ground to break the advance of ISIS and stop their atrocities against the Christians and other religious groups ISIS is now slaughtering. Some massive evacuations of endangered refugees may be necessary. All because two administrations failed to see the Middle East as it is. Hawks and doves are equally to blame.

With this president’s commitment to Iran. I don’t believe he will allow his administration to support the Kurds or Sunnis in Iraq. They certainly have not sent needed supplies to the Kurds despite their statements to the contrary.

The Advisor sat in silence for a few moments before picking up his pen and putting his thoughts down on a fresh page in his journal.

 

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and Kindle formats.This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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