Tag Archives: Middle East

INSIGHTS 272 IRAQ: WHAT’S HAPPENING?

iraqAt best Iraq, is a small Shiite nation with a port on the Persian Gulf and with a rich heritage of Shiite sites and some oil fields. Its past history of being a Middle Eastern military power capable of challenging Iran is gone. Its military was largely made up of Sunni tribes and Kurds; it is now almost purely Shiite. The United States moved from being Iraq’s most powerful enemy to being its primary supporter.

As its enemy, America destroyed Hussein’s military and political infrastructure. As its supporter, we presided over Iraq’s demise and the rise of ISIS. The White House, the State Department and the Pentagon still call the area that Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq. But it no longer exists. It evaporated with the withdrawal of American presence years ago. When the Pentagon and the State Department speak of the progress of the Iraqi Army they support, they are talking about the Shiite Army under Baghdad control. Any success of the Iraqi army on the battlefield is dependent solely on American and Iranian forces.

The Iraqi Army could not take Fallujah and hold it without American and Iranian support. The same is true for Mosel. Iranian militias will continue to provide the Iraqi Army with thousands of Shiite ground troops. The only winner in what used to be Iraq will be Iran. When very weak but rich nations border powerful nations, they often end up being absorbed. The term Iraq may continue to refer to Baghdad and areas South, but it will most likely be a province of Iran. I believe the White House is totally prepared for Iran to absorb Iraq.

When America and its allies defeat ISIS, they must be careful not to let the entire area of Sunni Tribes and Kurds also be absorbed by Iran. You can draw up a scenario which shows an American led coalition victory over ISIS could end up adding territory, people and oil wealth to Iran. Neither the Kurds or the Sunnis, alone or together, can withstand Iran. Only U.S. forces can do that. Under this administration or a Clinton progressive follow on, American forces will not be deployed against Iran. The transformation strategy of the Obama era for the Middle East will have taken a giant step forward.

 

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript, gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 266 A Setback For Global Socialism

A SETBACK FOR GLOBAL SOCIALISM

The British people who brought us democracy and enriched all our lives, have stepped into the breach again and said, “ENOUGH.” The Socialist bureaucracy of the European Union was dealt a severe setback. An organization that was created to prevent any more wars between France and Germany by making all of Europe a free market zone, met its objectives.

But the European socialist ideology forced the issue by adding political regulation to the European free trade zone. No surprise, that is what socialist/progressive followers do. The socialist adherence to rule by an enlightened progressive elite instead of the people, was moving toward a Global political Europe run by a bureaucratic elite in Brussels. Free movement of any person in the EU across national borders without border checks or visas was a Sub Rosa Front Coverlong-standing tenet of the EU.

Adding a surge of Muslim immigrants from Middle Eastern countries where radical Islam created hundreds of thousands of refugees provided the catalyst for national unrest in several EU nations. The history of Islamic migration to Europe showed these immigrants brought their culture, law, religion and language with them. Assimilation into the social fabric of the nations that accepted them did not happen.

If the British people hadn’t shown the wisdom and courage to stand against global socialism, there may not have been another chance for free people everywhere to resist the rising tide of rule by bureaucrats appointed by progressive governments. Take a hard look at how far Obama’s progressive transformation has empowered rule by appointed bureaucrats in America. Globalization and centralism are the twin tools that have always served those who want to establish rule by a talented elite of their followers.

My latest novel, The Sub Rosa Manuscript by Barry Kelly gives, I believe, a clear understandable account of the steady erosion of the personal and economic freedom we inherited from the sacrifices of those who went before us. It is now our turn to protect our inheritance by rejecting the empty promises of progressivism.

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INSIGHTS 265: FICTION, A WINDOW INTO TODAY’S ISIS WAR IN AMERICA

Justice without MercyBlood Justice Front CoverQuiet Justice coverBarry Kelly's fourth novel

The goal of radical Islam is not just to disrupt Western nations. The goal is world domination. A world that will then live under Sharia law. That includes you, your children, and grandchildren. So don’t you think you should know more about it than the news media gives you in sound bites?

I have followed this subject for several decades as a CIA officer, a Special Assistant to President Reagan with responsibilities of being his point on terrorism and intelligence, and from the vantage point of several field assignments, including Vietnam, South Asia, Moscow and the Middle East. Much of my knowledge and experience is contained in the novels I have written. Of course, I would like to be a best-selling author but, also, I want to share my knowledge with my readers. My first two novels, “Justice Beyond Law” and “Justice Without Mercy,” take the reader through the setup of terrorist cells and targets including the recruitment and training of Americans by Islamists to attack soft targets in America. These novels also show that the Obama administration’s blind reliance on “law and order” tactics cannot win the war against terrorism. All of the following novels are in the Jack Brandon Justice series.

Justice Beyond Law, introduces Jack Brandon and shows how a renegade KGB officer (Yuri) uses an abandoned network of KGB agents infiltrated into America years ago for his personal profit. The strategy Yuri uses to turn his connections into a profit-making enterprise and to manage his diverse network with agents of different skills is more than plausible. The methods he uses strain the traditional law and order approach to terrorism. The traditional approach involves the collection of evidence that will stand up in a court system bound to provide the protections of our Constitution and the rules of due process to all residents, legal or illegal. The collection period is followed by an indictment, the issue of warrants, an arrest, and finally a trial. An immense effort over a long period, but a very important element of our citizen rights. The heroes of this novel believe that, when dealing with terrorists who are in the country illegally, sometimes the safety of our people requires faster action than the law and order process allows.

Run to Freedom, is the prequel to the Jack Brandon action series. In this story I rely heavily upon my knowledge of the old USSR and its KGB intelligence apparatus. The story starts in 1920 in Siberia, with a little known deployment of American troops, just as WWI was wrapping up. In this novel the readers will travel from Russia, to Poland, to Canada and several cities in America, as Peter Brandon, Jack’s father, tries to escape the KGB in America. The forces the KGB deploys in America to capture or kill Peter are entirely within the capabilities of Russian intelligence in 1970′s America, as are the methods Peter uses to escape the dragnet.

Justice Without Mercy, shows the process an extremist Muslim group like al Qaeda uses to set up a series of terrorist acts in America to weaken the resolve of the people and lessen their trust in government to protect them. The plot of this novel is more probable than most people believe. Traditional law and order process is not capable of dealing with the fast-moving action of terrorism in the homeland. The law and order process pushed by the Obama administration, particularly by the Department of Justice, is more political than an effective counter-terrorist approach. There is a war brought by Islamic Jihadists against us. It needs to be fought with a similar approach. Foreign Jihadists don’t qualify for the protections of our Constitution.

The two following novels were written more than two years before the ISIS attacks in Paris, San Borodino and Orlando

Quiet Justice follows Jack and his growing team as they join with the CIA to take down ISIS terrorists in Jacksonville, Florida, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Charleston, South Carolina, and on the terrorists’ own turf in Fallujah, Iraq. This adventure in the Jack Brandon series pits Jack’s wits against those of a terrorist known as ‘The Fist of Islam,’ who has been converting U.S. citizens into warriors for Islam.

       Blood Justice, picks up the tale of another intriguing plot by an ISIS group in Iraq to bring the battlefield to the American homeland. Jack Brandon and his group are asked by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency to be the spearhead in the defense of America from this massive plot. It is hard to imagine that the traditional tools of law and order can win a war against the forces of radical Islam.

All these books have been reviewed by the CIA to prevent the disclosure of classified information.

The author has 27 years of government service, including two years serving President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s as a Special Assistant. His books can be found at Amazon, Amazon Kindle, Barnes and Noble, Nook or ordered through your local book store.

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INSIGHTS 260: Lost in the Wilderness

Sub Rosa Front Cover 

 

The Iraqi Army is attacking the ISIS stronghold of Fallujah that is also the place al Qaeda Iraq was born. The struggle in Iraq was so much simpler when the U.S. Marines recaptured Fallujah. Much blood and treasure was spent in the heroic Marine push into Fallujah. A decade later more blood, including some more American blood, will be spent in another abortive attempt to ignore facts on the ground and restore a Shiite Iraqi government to power.

It has been apparent for many years that Iraq is not now and never was a cohesive nation. Harsh Sunni dictators kept the lines on the maps that were labelled Iraq in place. The other two elements in Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds, did not share in the governing process or in the distribution of wealth. The Sunni Army, police and Intelligence forces kept them in place until the forces of the United States destroyed the Iraqi Sunni Army and governing infrastructure in order to install a Western type parliamentary government. In the process we destroyed the balance of power between Iran and Iraq. We know how to fight and win battles. We do not know how to do the nation building required to force fit a western democracy type rule in a part of the world that has no history of democracy or foundation of Western values. Both Presidents Bush and Obama share the blame for the rise of ISIS in Iraq.

Back to Fallujah and facts on the ground. Iraq today is totally a Shiite nation. The ISIS movement is overwhelmingly Sunni and the Kurds are fighting to establish a Kurdistan nation. They will fight to resist any Iraqi Government that tries to subject Kurds to rule from Shiite Baghdad or a Sunni rule in any form, ISIS or not ISIS.

The real threat in the area is Shiite Iran who intends to end up incorporating all of Shiite Iraq and the Iraqi oil reserves. What forces are surrounding Fallujah in the current struggle? Yes! Iranian militias, another name for Iranian government trained and equipped troops, who intend to destroy all Sunni armed groups in the region that could threaten their takeover of Shiite Iraq including Baghdad and south to the Gulf. An Iraqi victory in Fallujah will be a victory for Iran.

US airpower and advisors will be fighting on the side of Shiite Iran against the wishes of our traditional Sunni allies and Israel who want ISIS destroyed but not at the emergence of a more powerful Iran. That is fine with our leadership. The President and his Administration are firmly in the Iranian group. Can there be any doubt after some of the details of the Iranian Nuclear Treaty which is not a treaty have leaked?

Some things cannot be put back in the box and this is one of them.

 

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INSIGHTS 236 — PRESIDENTIAL WEAKNESS OR IDEOLOGICAL CONVICTION?

Advisor's vault doorThe Advisor put down the receiver after Chris, his Secret Service contact, told him the President wouldn’t be down today or for the rest of the week.

He had mixed feelings. The President was the only person he saw face to face. Over the years in his underground office, the Advisor had become dependent on the President’s visits. The isolation and loneliness were really affecting him. He really doubted he could function through the year remaining in the President’s term. He found himself losing track of some of his thoughts when he was writing in his journal. No question, he was really slowing down. Each day was a bit harder. His exercise schedule was a thing of the past. Without an appetite, he seldom did any meal preparation. He wasn’t sure whether it was his mental state or if age was catching up. To force himself to function, he decided to prepare a journal entry of the problems he had with the President’s actions and policies.

The Advisor thought, Even if the President is my only face-to-face contact, when he leaves I feel like I have been in the presence of a very dangerous man and I can’t do anything about it. In fact, my mission is to support him even though I know he is intent on destroying the America I fought for and loved. He is true to his ideology and background. Our President is a dedicated socialist and like so many guilt-ridden liberals, blames America for the world’s current and past problems. He is determined to be known in history as the president who weakened capitalism, imperialism, and the emphasis upon freedom of the individual. By weakening American economical and military power, he will force America to take a very diminished role in world affairs. The nation will be dependent on international organizations to define and protect the rights and privileges of all people. America will no longer be a unique nation and the hope of people everywhere.

There is no other way to understand his actions or his announced policies. He knows the withdrawal of America from the world will result in totalitarian forces like Russia, China, Iran, and the Muslim Caliphate filling the vacuum left by the retreat of the United States. To him that is a good thing. An accomplishment he is proud of. His primary foreign affairs goal is to transform not only America, but the world order as well. If anyone had described the President in these terms when he was first elected, I would have rejected them as the ravings of mad men.

When Vladimir Putin looks at the President, he sees a weak man who hasn’t the will or strength to stop him from annexing as much of the Ukraine as wants or to contest his power move into the Middle East which while very soon put Russia military into the Mediterranean with naval power and missile batteries installed in Syria. Putin doesn’t care one bit about Assad. His goal is to expand Russian power into the oil-producing regions of the Middle East and establish warm water ports for the Russian fleet. Neither Putin, the America progressive party, or Congressional Republicans understand the President is not acting out of weakness, though I believe he lacks physical courage, but he acts out of conviction. How else can anyone explain his foreign actions or job killing regulations by his administration?

The Advisor printed his journal entry and began to enter it into his journal with his slightly unsteady hand. The next time the President comes down, the Advisor thought, I just might tell him what his actions look like to America and its enemies. I’d like to discuss gun control with him. I know it isn’t the loss of life that is his point in his anti-gun crusade. If it was, he would be focused on places like Chicago and help the police and city  government to enforce existing gun laws. And it isn’t just using the issue to attack the opposition party. The President knows no socialist/communist government has ever taken control of an armed population. Slave holders always have guns. Slaves never do. Doesn’t that tell us everything we need to know?

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

 

 

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INSIGHTS 234 — RUSSIAN EMPIRE MOVES INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

Advisor's vault door“Mr. President, I want to read something you said last week when I asked, ‘Are you using the leading from behind strategy in the Middle East and primarily in Syria?’ And you answered, ‘Of course. My objective is to change or transform the world order. How could I do that if I was openly leading the action? I’m leading from behind. Iran, ISIS, and Russia are doing exactly what I want. If Russia ends up being a power in the Middle East with warm water ports for their warships and control of oil from the region won’t that end the strife and lead to a world society where the people will be much better off and the world’s wealth and resources will be more equitably distributed?

“‘Russia will have what they have always wanted. They have no desire to occupy Europe. The balance of world power will be forever changed for the better. The need for vast military expenditures will be gone. Colonialism, capitalism, and imperialism will be history. Those are the real evil “isms” of our world. Progressivism is the natural ideology for a world of equals.’”

“Given the very aggressive move by Putin into Syria in the last two weeks with his demand that U.S. aircraft no longer fly over Syria, will you need to change your approach?”

“Putin is following a long developed strategy followed by all the czars. He is the first to succeed in actually establishing a growing military presence in the Middle East. The Russian fleet will now have an all-weather sea port for their warships. He will be popular at home for a short time. Then the people will find out what it costs them to sponsor another client state. Control of Iraqi oil fields may provide some funds for Putin’s military build up and support for a bankrupt Syria but that will not be enough.

“He will soon have another Afghanistan on his hands. Remember how they moved into Afghanistan unopposed in President’s Carter’s one term? He was surprised. I am not. This a perfect response from Putin who is unknowingly assisting me in changing the current world order. Whether he stays for a decade or more in Syria, the Middle East will never be the same. The Christian, imperialistic, capitalistic western power will be balanced by the growing power of the Islamic nations who actually live in the Middle East. Those people will be governing themselves and using their wealth and intellectual resources for the good of a previously oppressed people.

“My concern is keeping the right wing ideologues from convincing my successor to oppose the Russian push into Syria. No matter what Putin does, I will not respond with American power. In a few more years American power both military and economically will be gone for good.”

“What about all the death and misery being inflicted on the people of Syria and Iraq?”

“It will pass in less than a decade. People always suffer when the tide of historical power shifts against existing rulers. Spreading Muslim people throughout the Christian world through chaotic refugee flows is not a bad thing. The shift in population demographics will actually act as a catalyst for a more rapid transformation in the Western world. I couldn’t be happier. Progress never takes place without chaos. The more chaos, the more rapid the pace of transformation can be.”

“Does anyone in your administration share your view of the world?”

“Really only one and she is constantly encouraging me to move more quickly.  A few others think they know but they don’t. Their thinking is still mired down in the Western approach of looking at governing as the constant solving of issues. As long as they stay out of the way, they do no harm in playing with transient problems that have no solution without transformation.”

“Mr. President, I think I’m safe in saying no other president has ever shared your view of America and the world.”

“I agree. See you next week. You are the only person I can truthfully talk to besides my co-partner in transformation. Good night.”

 

This is an account written by a fictional advisor who doesn’t exist but should.

Check out the latest Jack Brandon mystery suspense novel at your local bookstore. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

 

 

 

 

 

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INSIGHTS 209 –ADVISOR AND A NEW STRATEGY

Advisor's vault door

The Advisor knew the president wanted to talk about domestic policies on his next visit and that would be easy for him. He knew what the president wanted and how he was going about it. The president’s only problem with his domestic policies is that he is running out of time and losing influence in his party,  he thought. If you follow the news reports and are intelligent and skeptical enough to read between the lines, it is apparent the president, who is a political genius in the tactic of changing direction and misdirection, is turning to things he can do with or without Congress.

Hence the turn to ISIS, or ISIL, as the president prefers as it enables him to continue denying that the foundation for a radical Muslim state is already in place. The president’s basic plan will remain the same, even if the words change. His policy is to avoid the use of American military or economic power to achieve nationalistic objectives. In his mind, the world has seen enough of American dominance through capitalism and the use of military power to intervene in world events. The president seems to believe that his one great foreign policy or international accomplishment is in the prevention of American power to solve international problems. Like no other leader, foreign or American, he has driven the U.S. out of the Middle East. The remaining bastions of Western presence in the Middle East will gradually dry up and wither away, much like the last castle strongholds of the Crusaders. The president believes a progressive new world order will emerge to create a better life for all the victims of colonialism and racism. This much he has said right to my face in this very room.

The Advisor paused his musings long enough to pour himself a fresh cup of Sumatra roast coffee and sit back down at his desk. He took a long sniff of the fresh brew and sat back in his chair, the mug warm against his hand.

The president is not a dumb man but neither is he a wise one. His strength comes from his deep commitment to the redistribution of wealth and the destruction of American world dominance. His new strategy for ISIS will not be new. Just different  words. Nothing in his new strategy will adjust to ground-truth reality, but it will avoid even the slightest offense to Iran. The president knows what many of the Pentagon’s analysts have said, but he has no intentions of following any of their advice.

It is clear many foreign policy and military analysts know how ISIS can be controlled. First, Western statesman have to recognize that the Western creation of Iraq after the fall of the Turkish Empire has failed. Iraq has always been an artificial state held together by  vicious and cruel dictatorial leaders. Keeping the Kurds and Iraqi Sunnis individually weak pleased two Western Cold War allies, Turkey and Iran under the Shah. Even today, neither Turkey nor Iran want to see the United States arm and support either the Kurds or the Sunnis. But any American foreign policy that fails to arm and aid the Kurds and Sunnis will fail. The world has changed. Iran is now a deadly enemy and Turkey is becoming more and more driven by a radical Islamic fervor. Both of these old allies fear the establishment on their borders of a Sunni Caliphate made up of major parts of Iraq and Syria .

Rather than arm the Kurds and Sunnis with effective weapons, so far military aid to either of them has been in the form of words, the president will be guided by Iran and Russia’s alliance with Iran and not by what is in America’s interests. Give up on Iraq as a viable nation. Forget about bringing Iran into the family of nations. Let the Kurds and Sunni tribes establish their own borders.  Employ American air power at several times the current level and deploy 10,000 combat and support troops. By combining these changes with a real effort to arm the Kurds and move the Sunni tribes away from ISIS by immediate military and economic support could still be successful, but the president would have to turn his back on Iran and follow American strategic goals. That he will not do.

The Advisor shook his head and sighed heavily, then took a long sip from his mug. If only the president would listen, he thought.

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel by Barry Kelly dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from your local book store, This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

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