Tag Archives: Shiite

INSIGHTS 208 — THE ADVISOR CORRECTS A FALSE NARRATIVE

Advisor's vault door

During one of the long intervals between presidential visits to The Advisor’s underground office, the Advisor thought to himself: if no one else will get history right and correct the false narratives circulating from the White House and the liberal press, my journals and my Facebook account will contain a clear report of what was happening during my term as the Advisor. 

The Bush regime won the war but paved the way for a failed Iraqi government when they destroyed the Iraqi army and the Bath party of Saddam Hussein. None of the existing infrastructure every government needs was left. To make matters worse, the Advisor thought, shaking his head, the Bush administration failed to understand a Shiite/al-Maliki government would never be a check to the Shiite nation of Iran. Instead, the Iranians ended up owning Maliki who preceded to further weaken the Sunnis and the Kurds. For all the American blood and treasure the Bush administration spent in Iraq, little was left for Obama to work with, especially given his primary motive to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible. I doubt President Obama, or either of his inept secretaries of state, ever saw the real geo-political problem a Maliki government would cause. You would think that President Obama, who leans hard in the direction of supporting Sunni Muslims, would have recognized the growth and consequences of Shiite power in Iraq. “Some would argue that he didn’t care about Iraq, his sights were set on using Iran to transform the traditional world order in the Middle East,” he said aloud to no one. “And I am one of them.”

The Advisor sat down at his desk and continued musing. You didn’t need timely intelligence, which Obama claims he never received, to see the Sunni Islamic radicals that joined the rebellion against Syrian Shiite President Assad could easily cross the border into Sunni areas of Iraq. The Sunni tribes alienated by Maliki were ready to provide support in the form of manpower, logistics, weapons, and money. Borders mean nothing if they are not defended.

The result of the ISIS invasion of Iraq is that tribal and religious areas no longer follow the lines drawn by western diplomats after World War I. All remnants of the Shiite/Maliki government are being forced to fall back into Shiite populated areas, primarily south of Baghdad. A realistic map of Iraq will soon show Sunniland, Kurdistan and Shiiteland. The Sunnis and the Kurds will never go back into a centralized Shiite-run government. That failed experiment is over. Only more American blood and treasure could delay the collapse of Iraq, and for what? Our government needs to stop believing an Iraqi centralized government is possible. It is not.

Our policy should be to support the Kurds with modern weapons and monetary aid until their own fighters get properly equipped and to persuade the outside Sunni world to help bring the ISIS under some restraint. In the meantime, use unfettered air power and required boots-on-the-ground to break the advance of ISIS and stop their atrocities against the Christians and other religious groups ISIS is now slaughtering. Some massive evacuations of endangered refugees may be necessary. All because two administrations failed to see the Middle East as it is. Hawks and doves are equally to blame.

With this president’s commitment to Iran. I don’t believe he will allow his administration to support the Kurds or Sunnis in Iraq. They certainly have not sent needed supplies to the Kurds despite their statements to the contrary.

The Advisor sat in silence for a few moments before picking up his pen and putting his thoughts down on a fresh page in his journal.

 

The above is a fictional account of the writing of a legendary but fictional Advisor.

“ISIS: Quiet Justice,” a new Jack Brandon novel dealing with ISIS in America, is now available from Amazon and Barnes and Noble in print form and nook and Kindle formats.This is the fifth novel in the “Justice”series. Follow the author on Twitter @factsfictions80.

Leave a comment

Filed under Conservative views, Eight Decades of Insights, foreign policy, Intelligence & Politics, Iran, ISIS, Kurds, Obama, Shiite, Sunni

EIGHT DECADES OF INSIGHTS 126

WHEN TRUST FAILS

Forget for a moment about your biases, whether you’re pro- or anti-Israel, and look at the options the prime minister of Israel has in this growing conflict. He has no good options. He can’t count on the United States to keep the rest of the Arab countries out of the conflict. He must take action.  israel flagHe doesn’t have the luxury of doing nothing but talk. Rockets are falling on Israeli population centers. He knows, as everyone does, that the rockets are being fired from the Gaza Strip by Hamas, a  recognized terrorist organization. It wasn’t very far in the past that Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip at urging from the West that has struggled, painfully and ineffectively, to establish peace in the Middle East. A peace that the respective combatants don’t believe is possible. Both sides present goals that the opponents are not willing to offer.

Israel wants its Arab neighbors to recognize its right to exist as a nation state, more or less with existing boundaries. The Muslims want  Israel to retreat to borders prior to the 1967 war.  President Obama has stated the 1967 boundaries should be the starting point for negotiations. Israel believes the resulting Israeli nation would be untenable militarily and economically. Hamas and its West Bank partner would accept those boundaries as a starting point but at the same time render the whole process meaningless by their refusal to formally recognize Israel’s right to exist, regardless of any border. The main player, barely behind the scenes, Iran, has stated repeatedly it intends to wipe Israel off the map. Iran, a Muslim Shia state, funds, arms, and supports Hamas and Hezbollah, even though Hamas is Sunni while Hezbollah is predominately a Shiite organization. Without the aid and support of Iran and formerly Syria, neither group could survive.

Okay, that is the back story. What has changed?

The relationship between the American president and Israel has changed dramatically. Israel heard President Obama’s pro-Arab bias loud and clear. His disrespect of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the latter’s visits to America was off the charts. Israel has realized it can no longer count on American support or the word of its leader.

When the trust of America that Israel could count on previously disappeared, their options became more limited. When Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah, who also heard our president speak, no longer believe America is a player on the world scene their options increased.

The might of the United States is off the both the field of arms and the negotiating table. If there is to be peace in the Middle East, it will have to come from the Sunni powers that do not want war and the economic disruption that comes with it. Let us hope that the next administration will revert to supporting our only democratic ally in the region.

 

 

 

 

 

2 Comments

Filed under Intelligence & Politics